Systematic Effective and Discipline points [SED] to understand Indian Racing [All Centers]

Dear All

Fine tuning of SED thread. [03.01.14 27.12.13][13.12.13][08.04.2015]

Over View:

Racehorses can be unpredictable, unreliable and can turn out to be specious or inconclusive. 

Predicting the winner of any horse race especially any pattern handicaps with any degree of certainty is difficult,

Frequently impossible, unless you have the systematic effect and a disciplined understanding of Race Card.

We are not going to discuss anything on speed rating / timing / dynamic rating or any kind of Handicap systems. 

It requires lots of Mathematics calculation and other parameters, but the points mentioned here [will or may not] be useful but to my knowing, it will be very usable, while working out the race card and also any system of handicapping.

[Speed rating will give us a Idea of timing of all the runners where ever it is applicable and with that judgement we can understand how that particular race will be as follows {SR THEME}

a) Betting range 
b) Upset 
c) Good Race 
d) Bad race 
e) Run of the Race
f)  Skip the Race
g) Miscellaneous

With the 4 or 6 Rating, can be diluted with the following methods.]

Brief on Speed Rating Algorithm formula to calculate follows:

Speed Rating [Speed Timing / 100]
[Previous race with Present Race]
Fixed seconds : 0.17 Seconds.
[Convert all into [length loss / Weight Difference  /  False Rails [Narrowed into Zero with that particular Horse of that Day, If it is Not Required where ever it is applicable.]

[Now a days, the technology improved, we can able to get actual horse timing of that race such that, there is NO NEED to calculate length loss, but have to calculated weight loss / Adjustment of Distance.]

Still giving full details, such that, it will be useful to understand and also can create a EXCEL sheet with the above formula mentioned. [0.17 Seconds for 1 Length / 1kg where ever it is applicable.]

All Calculation Should be GOOD GOING Race Day.

Convert all timing into Seconds:
I will calculate latest running of that horse or take best timing of that distance of that horse..

Example: If a horse timing says 1.15.30 seconds for 1200M,  while calculating it should be: " 75.30" Seconds.

Adjust lengths with actual timing clocked by winner of that race into seconds.

[if a horse finished 4 length behind to the winner]
Speed= {0.17xLenght loss Add 75.30]
[0.17x 4] 0.68
Speed =[0.68+75.30] 75.98

[If a horse weight of previous weight and present weight after taking consideration of overweight and allowance][Say 2 kg up - ADD]  if it down - MINUS]

Speed weight =[0,17x difference of weight]
SW =[0.17 x 2] 0.34 seconds

Speed timing [Speed + Speed Weight]
ST [75.98+ 0.34] 76.32

[If a horse has NOT ran 1200M but is running now "than have to do this method, to covert that horse, into 1200M timing]

[Horse clocked 1400M  "84.30" with 3 lengths behind from winner] [Now a days we are getting actual timing of that horse clocked but some race books the timing wonot mentioned that have to calculate this method]

Speed=[0.17xLenght loss Add 84.30 seconds
[0.17x3] 0.51seconds
Speed=[0.51+ 84.30]  84.81

[Adjust to 1200M from 1400M]
Speed Adjust = [84.81 / 14] 6.05 Seconds [100 Meters]
[6.05 x 2 ] = 12.10 Seconds

Speed= [84.81 - 12.10] = 72.71 [72.71 Seconds that is 1.12.71 [We have converted 1400M timing horse to 1200M ]

[Previous Distance Minus or ADD with Present Distance]
PS. [you have to do it for 1600M same wise but have to divivide with 16 and multiple with 4] [ [1600 - 1200 ] = 4

We can able to Judge with 5 or 6 horses of that race and have to look other parameters which have be discussed in detail down, and short list the horses but 
keep it mind, that the First rating horse will be handy even "NOT PERFORMED" well in that race, due to some reason, and to kept it in SOFT MODE [Second outing forward Timing] and have consider  when it RAN Again.

My Points discussed here, do not form part of gambling angle but in sporting angle. 

Methodology:

1] How to read a race card for the day?

2] How to identify the equipment change and his effective / ineffective of that particular horse?

3] How to identify the horses which have a setback?

4] How to read the track work and his effective / ineffective?

5] How to read the previous running style of horses?

6] How to read the Handicap of horses and his effective / ineffective?

7] How to analyze the jockey change which will have effective or ineffective in horses?

8] How to identify Doosara or theesara of a particular race?

9] How to Implement all this in Racing

10] How to Mange Money Management in racing?

Process:

1] How to view a race card [and mark any of that horses] for the day?

This area is extremely important to understand how the race card going to be for the day and also gets first hand information regarding factors such as trainers, jockeys, equipment's, time between runs and prize money, sponsors and interlinks of connections horses.

A] We should consider how various handicap / Trophy rated classes for the day has been framed and also the division of races including terms of race.

B] We should have glimpsed with trainers engagement for the day. [Can be adroit at race time for any chances for double, if there have won earlier in the day.] 

C] We should have glimpsed with the jockeys engagement of the Day and also which trainer or connection. [This will provide us with an idea whether there are trustworthy riding to them or not. ] [if any change, has to analyze what purpose. ]

D] We should also mark connections horse who is giving sponsors for the day. [It doesn't mean their horses have to win or placed but we have to study carefully merit or demerit of that horse]

E] We should mark the drawn numbers which coincide with Horse No. [If that card is a little bit confusing or tough especially in lower class or big Trophy Races, this point can come in handy, such that, we have to study these horses carefully]

F] We should mark the Positive or Negative Shoe and also equipment changes. ]

G] We should be the horses who're -- trainers and connection have placed more than ONE of that particular race.

H] We should have glimpsed at Racing Incidents and marks the horses if any.

I] We should have glimpsed at the allowance Jockey list and mark that Jockey who is nearer to the target. [This will also help to study that contender for the day how it stands]

J] We should mark Handicap allowance weight and also over weight of that jockey, side of that horse.[This will help [adding or subtract] of previous weight with present weight]

K] We should mark any horses which are running the first time after gelded. [This will be utilized to because if it is betting in range it will run cool, but if it is at longer odds especially moral intention of track work like gate practice and mock race will be in fighting line. ]

L] We should mark "SIRES or bred" which are informed and also suitable distance.[Especially useful for 2 years old and 3 years old terms race]

M] We should mark all the horses which are having track works.

N] We should study all the horses in that race with previous 2 or 3 runs and Mark [ if it is positive trend] including Jockey change / Distance / Handicap weight [+ or -] including rated. [Example: Running in Same class or promotion or Demote]

O] We should round of [younger horses are] of that race. If 3 years preceding is running, it will be worthwhile to study that animal before going ahead of older horses. [It will or may not] be gainful for lower class or any center. Still we will be inclined of that card in the fitness of younger horses. ] [If 2 or 3-year-old animals [running the first time without any track work] and won the race or by fighting line.] 

2] How to identify the equipment change and his effective and ineffective of that particular horse?

[This pattern is also very important to delete or add in our list of selections of that card]

Shoes: Before bestowing explanation regarding change of shoes always wants to clear that positive or harmful doesn't mean Aluminum or Steel. Here we look with the horses of previous runs how it is running with that Shoe. There are plenty of horses which have run extremely well with a steel shoe and also other horses have not run well with Steel Shoe, seem like opposites. Some horses have run well aluminum shoe but have not run with Steel Shoe. There are horses which have won or in fighting line with both the shoes. [We have to check previous runs how it ran the change shoes]

Here, we should find, if there gets no change in Shoe of that respective horse which we have marked on our card how it has run in previous races. If it is noteworthy tendency TICK, IT or CROSSED it. [Nowadays technology has vastly improved with one mouse click, we will get the details] [we can shortlist of horses in this race]

.Might be the object of Steel shoe how it is running. [We should be a little bit cagey, but, they have not given the track work after that run but change to steel shoe can be omitted. ]

Equipment's:

[This pattern is also very important to delete or add in our list of selections of that card]

I just want to clear that positive or Negative doesn't mean any equipment ON or OFF. 

Here I look with the horses of previous runs how it is running with that, said equipment. There are plenty of horse which has ran extremely  good with that equipment and also other horses have NOT Ran well said ON equipment., same like opposite. Some horses have ran fine with said equipment ON but have NOT Run with side equipment off. 

There are horses which have won or in fighting line with both the said equipment ON or OFF. 

[We have to check previous runs, how it  has perform with change equipment]

We  have observe lots of equipment changes irrespective of horses running well or not namely [Blinkers on or off] [HD on or off] [CNB on or off] [VSR on or off] [TS on or off] [XNB on or off] like this.

[This will give a clear picture once we check how it has Ran previous races with this kind of Equipment's] [If any horse which has won with these blinkers and change off Next outing we should be careful of selecting this kind of horses, but after few Runs again there will change the equipment but it will Run good Race.

Irrespective of equipment ON or OFF but how it fits for that horse is the most important thing. ] 

If it is a noteworthy tendency TICK IT otherwise CROSSED IT.

We can shortlist of horses,  In this Method.

3] How to identify the horses which have a setback?

In Racing Incidents we will get all the horses which has been observed Example blood vessel / lame / slowly off / cut injury or miscellaneous injury / did not raise a fluent gallop trainer was informed to show it mock race / erratic course / bruised the false rails / if the horse has won but there was inquiry trainer was informed to ensure a better performance in future like visa and other incidents. 

[These remarks have to mark the said Horse as discuss in How to read a race card. ]

Blood Vessel [If there is BV it will be difficult to perform better in at-least 3 races. The track work indication will bestow a clear picture still first outing after BV will run an unofficial race. ] [If it is a progressive tendency TICK IT or CROSSED IT] [We can shortlist of horses in this race. ]

Lame [I think there should be at-least 2 gate practices and soundtrack work to accept on our short list of horses in this race. ]

If the horse has won and there was an inquiry [I consider normally this contender will be in fighting line in Top 3 bases on intention of that card. ]

Additional miscellaneous injury [If there is NO track work after that Run we can cross it this type of base on the tendency of the card. ]

4] How to read the track work and his effective and ineffective?

Is this pattern, there will have a matchless method to check the track work of horses. Some will go with the best timing of track work and different methods. ]

I prefer horses which will be bestowed track by Rider Boy (RB), Trainer OR Same Jockey who will be astride. Nonetheless, some horses will be bestowed the track by some other jockeys, such cases, in my workout I will keep it has defaulted contender. "Depends upon the moment of the odds or the double of that particular owner etc. It will be borne in mind.

Rider Boy: The cause of bestowing to RB is that first preference weight of rider boy will be around 60kg. If that particular horse had a Impressive  or Good track work with RB The horse should find themselves in the fighting line, if Run on Merit.

Same Jockey. The reason for preferring the same jockey is that, any co-ordination is required and both can be nauseating and it will be very empathetic at the Spur of the Moment.

(I have list of Track work Style based on that it will be taken into consideration)

Effective:

a) Impressed

b) Easily held

c) Urged or Slightly urged [Mumbai and Pune]

d) Stared 5 lengths behind the finished level or ahead

e) Good Gate Practice

f) Easy [at Mumbai and Pune] [Not in any other center]

g] Good [-]

h] Worked Impressively

I] Worked attractive or attractive display

j] Note

k] well in hand [-]

l] Excellent Display

m] worked well

n] Superior or better [at Mumbai and Pune]

o] Moved Well [-]

p] Moved Fluently

q] noteworthy pair

r] Handy [at Mumbai and Pune]

 s] Excellent [ - ]

 t] Strode out well

u] Hard Held [ - ]

v] Ridden out

w] Caught the eye

x] Pleased

y] Retain form

z] Eased up

The rest will be substandard to my understanding.

5] How to read the previous running style of horses?

I will give preference to the contenders for having a superb forward Run in previous runs and also observe on spare horses that race how they have performed after that race. [If positive jockey astride and also advantage in handicap weight base on previous race. It will be taken into consideration]

Base on distance suitable of that horse - preference will be bestowed less than the aforementioned distance.

A] Weakened [TS ON added or already installed will give more preference]

B] Fell back / Went Back

C] Gave up

D] Dropped Back [TS ON added or already installed will  give more preference. ]

E] Improved [Preference will be given to same distance or Added Distance]

F] Covered Good Distance [Depends on the track work and also Added Distance]

G] Improved Slightly [Same distance or Added Distance]

H] Start to Finish / Set Pace [Less Distance]

I] Receded [After forward Run with same distance or Added and less Distance]

J] Moved along the fence

K] Finished or Ran or Ended [Depends on the track and also Added Distance or Same Distance]

L] No Show [If it is Demote and level matches]

M] Failed to quicken [Depends on trend]

N] Rearhorses

O] Warmed up [added distance or Pedigree sutable]

[Once we mark the contender of that race with these words, check the video of that particular race out there and check what exactly happen and plan accordingly to TICK IT or CROSSED IT. ]

6] How to read the Handicap of horses and his effective and ineffective?

A handicap is an unbounded subject, but there is no need to break our head. A simple calculation is [Previous weight - Present weight is Handicap weight [Preference is - if it is Reduced or same weight and if it has increased of previous weight can be ignored but have to check previous races how said horse has performed with the Present weight.

Now a days 3 years older horses which have won has also won in penalty of weight but have to check the tendency of the card.

Demote horses have had to see the difference of handicap level out there and check the horses from preceding races how it has performed with that weight and distance. If some horses have Not Run in demoting class that level needs to be adjusted with 6 kg of preceding races and see the weight depends on class even analogous applies to terms horse to Handicap Race. ]

We have seen some horse after won or placed in terms of race has directly gone to 40 to 65 or higher classes. Nonetheless, it will be scheming for these horses be on fighting line but sporadic cases may be shining. Base on the tendency of the card can be crossed it or take it.

We have further seen double promotions horses, here also, if the level is not matched it cannot be taken into consideration.

7] How to analyze the jockey change which will have effective or ineffective in horses?

This pattern is, the most noteworthy area where much concentration and intelligent has to be taken care and find out whether the jockey riding in this trainer or connection is a regular one.

Once we see the analysis of the horse and the jockey, we can get an idea along with the track work's intention if the same jockey is working in a track work. 

While checking the video which was examined in 5, we will get an idea that jockey change is Right Perspective  or ineffective.

[We cannot make much, if there is a thorough going preceding change in jockey riding whether top jockey or unreliable jockey astride owing to abundant reasons. ]

8] How to identify Doosara or theesara of a particular race?

One simple answer to this is, if the same connection with same trainer has more than 1 and less than 3 then the betting range horse has to analyse and also another 2 horses and check the racing incident of the betting range horse whether any ineffective notice and give more attention to other 2 runners and find out the jockey riding skill and the track work's intention.

Definitely one runner will be omitted by default and another one has to check with your liking  post what kind of analysis they are on that horse.

It will be considerably complicated if there are more that 5 or 6 runners in a race with Same Trainer and connection and also connection placed with another trainer. Race time indication also will be confused, but the study of that horse was cool regular jockey of that stable who has won before at longer odds and check it out the intention of that horse.

9] How to apply all this in racing.

Check in Implementation section [3]

10] How to Manage, Money Management in racing?

This pattern is the Multi Dollar Question and also it is a very gigantic subject not only in racing but also in our day to day activities and also Business Line. [As long as] we are controlled by the guidelines not only in racing but also in day to day activities, it will go smoothly?

Once we cross our limit then the situation goes awkward.

Discipline and determination are more important  "NO ONE IS ABOVE RACING" and EVERY DAY IS NOT SUNDAY and RACING is not a matter ot a DAY. IT IS FOR SEASON."

3.Implementation:

Once all the process done, we can dilute at-least 4 or 5 contenders in that race. See selected horses with your racing books from fleeting glance where you get an idea what kind of glance, that is mentioned to that selected horse if any. If it is a noteworthy tick ok. Otherwise Wait or cross it.

Once you have 3 horses in your short list of that particular race, check again with your favorite post and selected horses matching. Figure out what kind of analysis given to your selected horse. 

If our selected horse is in the Right Perspective Tote indication may be in a positive trend. Rest depends on luck.

This is my view and any feedback will be helpful all viewers and also can be changed accordingly.

Best wishes and warm regards.


Additional Information.

1 Furlong = 1/8th mile (660 feet, 220 yards, or 201.17 meters)

Workouts Lengths
2 Furlongs = 1/4 mile
4 Furlongs = 1/2 mile 
6 Furlongs = 3/4mile
8 Furlongs = 1 mile

Race Lengths
5 Furlongs = 5/8 mile         {1000Meters}
5.5 Furlongs = 11/16 mile {1100 Meters}
6 Furlongs = 3/4 mile.        {1200 Meters}
6.5 Furlongs = 13/16 mile 
7 Furlongs = 7/8 mile.        {1400 Meters}
7.5 Furlongs = 15/16 mile
8 Furlongs = 1 mile.            {1600 Meters}
8.5 Furlongs = 1 1/16 miles
9 Furlongs = 1 1/8 miles.   {1800 Meters}
9.5 Furlongs = 1 3/16 miles
10 Furlongs = 1 1/4 miles. {2000 Meters}
10.5 Furlongs = 1 5/16 miles
11 Furlongs = 1 3/8 miles  {2200 Meters}
11.5 Furlongs = 1 7/16 miles
12 Furlongs = 1 1/2 miles  {2400 Merers}